Anti-Fragile
How Arsenal Showed Adaptability and Resilience to Get Their Season Back on Track
Arsenal's start to 2023 was far from ideal. Jonas Eidevall's side kicked off the year by conceding a late equaliser at home to Chelsea, having dominated the first 70 minutes of the match. They dropped points against a team outside of the "big 4" for the first time this season in a goalless draw away at West Ham where they couldn't convert final third territory into big chances. They weren't at the races at all away to City, the first half of that game surely representing their worst performance of the season - Arsenal created their lowest expected goals total (xG) (0.3) for the season while allowing their highest xGa (2.3). An early exit from the FA Cup at Kingsmeadow followed the international break, despite the gunners once again having the better of a game against Chelsea. You could forgive even the most optimistic Arsenal fan for fearing the worst ahead of the Conti Cup final against Chelsea at the turn of the month.
It was not as if chance creation or ball progression into the final third had been a major issue in Arsenal's difficult start to the year, City away aside. Much was made of the absence of Beth Mead of Vivianne Miedema – any team would struggle to cope with the loss of two Balon D'or nominees. Arsenal's lack of cutting edge was clear for all to see, but you didn't need to squint too hard to see the positive signs during this difficult run.
In the league and FA Cup games against the blues, Arsenal consistently had joy building the play down Chelsea's right hand side and exploiting spaces left behind the Chelsea right-back area. In the league game, they failed to convert promising attacks into clear cut chances, creating a non-penalty xG of just 0.8. They improved in this regard in the FA Cup game, but squandered a number of highly presentable goalscoring opportunities. Eidevall's side had to suck up the bad results, but Arsenal were not far from clicking into to gear.
Followers of the men's team will know all about "process", a buzzword that tends to follow bad results closer than it does good ones (talk of process has been conspicuously absent from discourse surrounding the men’s team this season, the process very much speaks for itself when you’re top of the league). Eidevall touched on this very "modern-football" phenomena in a recent press conference. "You can sustain a good process in the medium-term without results, but in the end you need results to back it up". If you want to move the discourse on from process to results, a cup final is a pretty good place to start. When Sam Kerr headed in after two minutes at Selhurst Park, it was impossible not to fear the worse. Who knows how deeply the recriminations would have cut had Chelsea gone on to inflict a cup final defeat on Arsenal for a second consecutive season. Arsenal could've felt sorry for themselves; resigned to the fact that injury after injury made this season a write off, that the best they could do was regroup and go again in the summer. But this is a team that knows how good they are, even without the formidable quality of Mead and Miedema.
Stina Blackstenius just needed a goal. In fairness, one of the strikes she did have to her name in 2023 before March was enough to get Arsenal to the final, but aside from that semi-final winner against City and an FA Cup rout of Leeds, she had drawn blanks in a frustrating run in front of goal. It was even rumoured that she was offered as part of a potential swap deal to bring Alessia Russo to Arsenal on deadline day. Sometimes, a striker on a barren run needs a bit of good fortune, and that's exactly what Blackstenius got as Frida Maanum's shot was deflected into her path, just as the Chelsea defensive line was pushed back by a piercing run by Caitlin Foord, giving the Swede the space and time she needed to pick her spot and coolly sent Anne Katrin-Berger the wrong way. That equalising goal proved to be the perfect tonic, not just for the centre-forward, but her teammates. Arsenal went on to win 3-1, ending a four year trophy drought, but that Sunday afternoon in Croydon was just the start of recovery which has reignited a season that was in danger of fizzling out.
Routine wins at Meadow Park against Liverpool and Reading followed, as Arsenal's reconfigured attack continued to gel. Blackstenius looked a player revitalised against Liverpool, attempting eight shots, one of which found the net while another led to the second goal. Maanum, who has surely been Arsenal's player of the season in the number ten role (even before Meidema's enforced absence) also stood out against the reds. Her 11 progressive carries were the joint-most by any Arsenal player this season (WSL and UWCL proper only, all data in this article is via fbref, which does not record this data for other competitions*).
Against Reading, she scored Arsenal's second of the game before causing the own goal for the third (officially, this doesn't go down as an assist, but the FPL player in me disagrees with this decision). Foord has been a key player on the left-wing this season, but going into March, she didn't have the direct goal contributions that her performances merited, notching up just six g/a (one goal and five assists) in the WSL. Her goal against Liverpool and assist for Maanum against Reading were two of four direct goal contributions made in the league last month.
While six points out of six against bottom half fodder (can you really call it a bottom half when the entire division only has 12 teams?) were par for the course, tougher challenges lay ahead as Arsenal came out of a long winter and welcomed the arrival of spring.
The Champions League quarter final had long been a stumbling block for Arsenal, who suffered three successive exits at that stage in each of their last three appearances in the competition. The mental block could be likened to the men's consistent run of round of 16 exits back in the days when they played in the male equivalent of European football's premier competition (remember those?). Topping the group thanks in large part to a 5-1 win away at European champions Lyon, meant that Arsenal held the advantage of being at home in the second leg. Arsenal were the better side in Munich, with Foord unplayable at times, but their winter woes reared their head again as they were profligate in front of goal, though they weren't helped by a questionable refereeing display which saw them denied two penalties.
In the wake of Mead and Miedema's injuries, it is not just Foord, Blackstenius and Maanum that have stepped up. Katie McCabe's versatility is reflected in her chant, in which the fans sing "she plays on the wing (sometimes)", despite the fact that she has tended to play more predominantly at fullback since being converted from an out-and-out attacker under the previous manager Joe Montemurro. She has needed to show that flexibility this season, with the ever changing player pool available to Eidevall resembling a game of musical chairs. At the start of the season, Steph Catley deputising at centre-back during the simultaneous absence of Leah Williamson and Rafaelle meant that McCabe was restricted to playing at left-back. In Mead and Meadiema's absence, she became Eidivall's trusted option on the right-wing until a post-Conti Cup final hamstring injury to Catley pushed her back to left back.
Like the victims of some sort of medieval torture device, Arsenal became increasingly stretched as the month drew on and the big games kept coming. January signing Viktoria Pelova's integration into the team has been fast-tracked in order to fill the void at right-wing in Mead and McCabe's absence. She may not offer the combativeness of the latter, but nonetheless already looks attuned to playing in a system in which off the ball work rate is paramount. She has excelled as a facilitator for the likes of Foord, Blackstenius and Maanum, leading the way when it comes to progressive passes from players in the front three against Liverpool and Tottenham (seven). She also led the way across the entire team on progressive carries in the North London derby (five).
Following a 5-1 victory in the derby, the month ended with two games that would decide whether Arsenal could remain in the running for league and European titles going into April. In front of a record crowd for a Champions League game in England, Arsenal started the second leg against Bayern as dominantly as they had ended the first, when disaster on the injury front struck once again; Kim Little going down with a hamstring injury. If Arsenal had exited the competition that night, they could be forgiven for rueing their luck on a number of fronts (injuries, refereeing decisions from the first leg, missed chances), but Eidevall made it clear in his pre-match press conference that he didn't want Arsenal feeling sorry for themselves come the final whistle: "One of my favourite sayings is that 'you can't have results and excuses', you have to choose one of them and I always choose results".
Jonas got his wish on the night as Arsenal adapted to Little's injury by moving Williamson into the midfield. Williamson would have a hand in Arsenal's stunning opener, backheeling the ball to Maanum who launched an absolute rocket into the top corner in what will surely be a contender for Arsenal's goal of the season. It could certainly be their most watched, with the clip of the goal posted by the DAZN Football Twitter account garnering 1.8 million views. Blackstenius's fourth goal of the month was enough to complete the turnaround, but in truth, it could've been much more over the course of the tie, with Arsenal creating 4.8 xG to Bayern's 1.4.
An adjustment of style was necessary in response to the loss of the captain. In the game against Manchester United in November, Eidevall had made the mistake of trying to replace an injured Little like-for-like, bringing in Jordan Nobbs off the back of an excellent performance against West Ham from the now departed midfielder. Eidevall didn't single out Nobbs specifically, but acknowledged that he had learnt a valuable lesson from that 3-2 defeat.
"When I reflect on the United game, one of the things I learned is that, sometimes, when you change players, you aren't just changing one player, you are putting out a new team".
With the club since confirming that Little’s season is over, Arsenal must now field a "new team" for the remainder of the season – just as they had to do when they lost Williamson and Rafaelle early in the season and Mead and Miedema in the winter. On the early evidence, Jonas has learned from his earlier mistake. In his post-Bayern press conference, Eidevall was quick to point out that the move for Maanum's brilliant opener had started with Arsenal winning the ball back high up the pitch thanks to some intense counter-pressing – an early sign that this new Arsenal team may have to overcompensate when it comes to their off ball intensity and organisation to alleviate what they lose in technical security in Little's absence.
If adaptation has been Arsenal's defining characteristic this season, no game sums this up better than the home match against Manchester City at Meadow Park, just four days after the emotionally and physically draining win against Bayern. Arsenal lost a lot of their press resistance that made them so effective with Little in the team, mustering just 37% possession –their lowest tally of the season. It is surely no coincidence that Sabrina D'Angelo, who excels in kicking the ball long, started this game as Arsenal looked to tweak their in possession approach. Conversely, they were far more aggressive out of possession. Pressing and counter press is a key principal of Eidevall's Arsenal in any case, but it was no coincidence that Arsenal made more tackles and interceptions (43) in this game than any other this season. Williamson, playing as the archetypal box-to-box midfielder was key in that, leading the way with ten tackles/interceptions.
It is hard to analyse the City game without giving sufficient weight to intangible factors. It is true that Manchester City could've been out of sight by halftime – after the imperious Bunny Shaw headed City in front early on, Arsenal had to survive wave after wave of City pressure. When Arsenal did manage to find a foothold in the game, it was short-lived, as they were once again forced to adapt as Foord left the field with a hamstring injury. Perhaps going into the break with a fighting chance having ridden their luck in the first half provided belief enough that there was still something there for Arsenal in the game.
The first goal, a tap in for Maanum, her fourth of the month, was fittingly scrappy, in keeping with the Arsenal performance on the day. The identity of the scorer of the winning goal summed up Arsenal's never-say-die attitude. Less than 96 hours previously, McCabe had left Emirates Stadium with a protective boot around her foot, but it was Manchester City goalkeeper Ellie Roebuck who needed protecting as a piledriver off the very same foot flew into the top corner to turn the game on its head.
That Arsenal would finish the game with all four senior centre-halves and three fullbacks on the pitch, while a 36-year old Jodie Taylor led the line, shows that at this stage of the season, every member of the squad that remains available has a part to play. Things will not get an easier tonight, away to Manchester United, where Arsenal surely need another result to keep their revived title ambitions alive. McCabe's suspension quite literally adds insult to injury, though Steph Catley could return.
Arsenal's injury problems have tested the team all season, but they are still fighting on two fronts with one trophy already in the bag. Ahead of the United game, the Arsenal manager, in typical Jonas Eidevall fashion, took inspiration from the world of philosophy:
“There is a very good book by Naseem Nicholas Taleb, Anti-Fragile. He goes over that theory, if something shakes you but it doesn’t break you, it will probably make you stronger and more adaptable for future challenges.
“In a volatile and chaotic world like professional football, it is really important to be anti-fragile, to be able to handle turbulence.”
Arsenal showed that anti-fragility in March, carry that into April and May and this season could yet have a glorious ending.